The biggest event of the week is the FOMC outcome.
Nifty is likely to the start the week on a positive note as investors shall welcome a softer-than-expected US inflation report that strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts.
The US CPI inflation data also suggested that tariff-related inflationary pressures remain contained for now.
The biggest event for next week will be monetary policy decisions, with Federal Reserve’s FOMC heading into meeting on October 28-29th without its usual data due to the US government shutdown
The street is fully pricing in another 25bps rate cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%–4%.
Apart from that, all eyes will also be on Q3 GDP figures releasing in the USA on Thursday, October 30th 2025.
Near-term cues to watch include Q2 earnings,
Monday (October 27): Indian Oil Corporation, Adani Energy Solutions, Indus Towers, and SRF.
Tuesday (October 28): TVS Motor Company, Adani Green Energy, Tata Capital, and Shree Cements.
Wednesday (October 29): Larsen & Toubro, Coal India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and United Breweries.
Thursday (October 30): ITC, Pidilite Industries, Cipla, Canara Bank, and Dabur India.
Friday (October 31): Maruti Suzuki India, Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, Godrej Consumer Products, and ACC.
Amongst IPOs this week, Orkla India Ltd. IPO is a book build issue of ₹1,667.54 crores. The issue is entirely an offer for sale of 2.28 crore shares of ₹1,667.54 crore. The IPO opens for subscription on Oct 29, 2025 and closes on Oct 31, 2025. The allotment is expected to be finalized on Nov 3, 2025. The IPO will list on BSE, NSE with a tentative listing date fixed as Nov 6, 2025.
On the technical front, the Nifty will look to defend support at 25450 while on the upside targets remain at Nifty’s all-time-high at 26277.35 mark and then aggressive targets at psychological 27000 mark.
The broader market undertone stays constructive, aided by a steady pickup in foreign institutional inflows (FII) and sustained domestic investor participation.
Some volatility also expected as October F&O contracts expire on Tuesday, October 28th 2025.
Bottom-line: Well, the only thing which could glitter brighter than Gold and Silver could be the Nifty index – confirmation of strength only above Nifty 26277.35 mark.
The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 25000-27000 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 26000 followed by 26500 strike prices. 26000 mark is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 25500 levels followed by 25000 levels. Call writing was seen at 25900 and then at 26000 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 25300 and then at 25400 strike prices.
Price Forecast:
Nifty CMP (25795)
Support : 25300/24851
RESISTANCE: 26000/26500
RANGE: 25511-26100
200 DMA: 24269
Nifty PCR: 0.65
BIAS: Positive
Bank Nifty CMP (57700)
Support: 56800/55000
RESISTANCE: 59000/60700
RANGE: 56900-58650
200 DMA 53472
BankNifty PCR: 0.84
BIAS: Positive
Preferred trade for the week:
Nifty (25795): Buy at CMP. Targets at 26000/26277. Aggressive targets at 26500 zone. Stop at 25299.
TOP SECTORS
Bullish Sectors: BANKS, AUTO, FMCG, IT, PHARMA
Bearish Sector: MEDIA
STOCKS IN FOCUS:
BULLISH VIEW: SAMMAANCAP, ICICIBANK, BEL, NATIONALUM, HINDALCO, INOXWIND, AMBER, FEDERALBNK
BEARISH VIEW: HUL, CIPLA, TITAN, INDIGO, DMART, TRENT, MCX, APOLLOHOSP, DIXO, KAYNES, BSOCHLTD, SHREECEM, ULTRACEMCO.
GRASIM
GRASIM
BUY
CMP 2841
Target Price 3701
Stop 2271
52 Week H/L 2912/2276
P/E 45.50
EPS (TTM) 2.15
Promoter Holding/FIIs/DIIs/FIIs/Public 43.11%/13.79%/17.91%/24.87%
Book Value 1433
Market Cap (INR) 193356
Company Overview
• Incorporated / Founded: 1947. Headquarters: Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
• Nature of Business: A diversified industrial conglomerate of the Aditya Birla Group, with core operations in viscose (cellulosic fibres), chemicals / chlor-alkali, building materials (cement, paints, construction), textiles, and newer ventures (paints, digital / B2B marketplace).
• Subsidiaries / Linkages: UltraTech Cement, Aditya Birla Capital, Birla Opus (paints) and “Birla Pivot” (B2B building materials marketplace).
• Geographic / Segment Spread: Grasim has plants in multiple states in India (e.g. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka) for its fibre, chemical and building materials segments.
• Strategic Moves & Expansion: Entered decorative paints business under brand Birla Opus — aims to set up six plants across India.
Key Strengths & Competitive Advantages
• Diversification & Portfolio Balance: Grasim is not dependent on a single vertical—viscose fibre, chemicals, building materials, newer segments like paints and digital play provide balance.
• Scale & Vertical Integration: In viscose and chemicals, Grasim benefits from scale economies and integration (raw materials, inputs) which help margin resilience.
• Strong Legacy & Brand Trust: Being part of the Aditya Birla Group provides reputational strength, access to capital and group synergies.
• New Growth Engines: The paints business (Birla Opus) and B2B platform (Birla Pivot) are high-potential ventures aimed at future revenue and margin contributions.
• Cement / Building Material Leverage: Through UltraTech (its cement arm) and synergies with building materials, Grasim has exposure to India’s infra and real estate growth.
• Operational Efficiency in Chemicals & Cement: In Q1 FY26, improved profitability in chemical and cement verticals contributed to strong consolidated performance.
Risks & Challenges
• Margin Dilution from New Ventures: Paints and digital / B2B platforms require heavy initial investments; early drag on margins is possible.
• Commodity / Input Volatility: Chemicals, energy, pulp, and other inputs are subject to global price swings which can compress margins.
• Cyclicality of End Markets: Cement / building materials are sensitive to real estate cycles, interest rates, and macro slowdown.
Key Financial Results (Q1 FY26)
Metric Q1 FY26 YoY Growth / Notes
Consolidated Revenue ₹ 40,118 crore ↑ 16% YoY
EBITDA ₹ 6,430 crore ↑ 36% YoY
PAT (owners’ share) ₹ 1,419 crore ↑ 32% YoY
Technical Outlook: The recent sequence of higher high/low is intact in all time frames with bullish a probable ‘bullish Flag’ pattern break on the weekly charts. The 200-DMA of the stock is around 2656 levels and will act as major support.
Preferred Strategy: Look to buy at CMP, and on dips between 2500-2550 zone, targeting 2911/3251, and then aggressive targets at 3650-3701 zone. Stop below 2289. Holding Period 9-12 Months.
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