June 30th to July 4th 2025.

It was an uninspiring week for benchmark Nifty as investors stayed on the sidelines despite Wall Street scaling new record highs.

Caution prevailed and was the preferred theme than usual indicating tariff concerns have eased – But not vanished.

That brings us to our call of the week which suggests the tug-of-war is likely to continue with bears having the upper-hand in the near term and in the longer term, we are distinctly cautiously optimistic.

Nifty (-0.69%, 25461)
Sensex (-0.74%, 83433)

The benchmark Nifty found it hard and struggled to sustain its recent bullish momentum as anxiety prevailed on backdrop of investors being mindful of the risks as India and the US race to finalise a bilateral trade pact ahead of the July 9 deadline.

So, until Wednesday, July 9th Nifty bulls are likely to be reluctant and so will be Nifty bears.

So, until Wednesday, July 9th serious consolidation seen as the preferred theme.

Now, here are key themes in the week gone by:

1) At Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite roared to reach their fresh 52-week highs.

2) A stronger-than-expected US jobs report buoyed investors’ sentiments confirming a resilient American economy.

3) That said, the robust June jobs data actually dampens expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in July.

4) US President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful’ tax-cut and spending bill passes Congress in big win for US President

5) FII selling: In the week gone by, the FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 6544.50 crores.

6) President Trump announced a trade deal that will tariff Vietnam at 20% instead of the 46% tariff from “Liberation Day” which is tariff, significantly lower than the 46% levy initially planned. The deal also sets a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, a measure aimed at curbing the practice of circumventing tariffs by routing Chinese goods through the country.

Long Story Short: The possibility of both a melt-up or a melt-down is quite high. Expect the tug-of-war to continue with bears having the upper hand in the near term.

Weekly Recap:
Instruments LTP Weekly % Change
Nifty 25461 (-0.69%)

Sensex 83433 (-0.74%)
BankNifty 57032 (-0.72%)
NiftyMidcap 16841 +0.48%
India VIX 12.31 (-0.59%)

DowJones 44829 +3.04%
Nasdaq 22867 +1.7%
Bovespa 141282 +3.23%

Crude Oil 65.45 +1.43%
Gold 3335 +2.05%
Silver 36.92 +2.63%
USD/INR 85.50 +0.01%

Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

1) Nifty ended 0.69% lower.

2) Bank Nifty (-0.72%) slipped in the week gone by, and most importantly, mirrored Nifty’s (0.69%) loss.

3) Nifty Private Bank index ended 1.54% lower while Nifty PSU Bank index gained 1.96% lower.

4) The broader markets were seen spurting with positive bias as the Nifty Mid-cap 50 index inched up 0.48% while the Nifty Small-cap index was 0.30% higher.

Bullish Sectors:
Nifty Pharma +2.08%
Nifty Oil & Gas +1.41%
Nifty IT +0.89%
Nifty Media +0.80%
Nifty PSE Index +0.31%
Nifty Metal +0.02%

Bearish Sectors:
Nifty Reality -2.21%
Nifty FMCG -0.68%
Nifty Auto -0.11%
Nifty Energy -0.09%
Nifty Infra -0.05%

STOCK SPECIFIC NEWS:

1) Hospital stocks like Max Healthcare (+1.48%), Aster DM Healthcare (+7.8%) and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (+3.35%) were up on healthy business outlook.

2) Biocon (+7.25%) zoomed higher after the company said that Biocon Biologics has received the European Commission (EC) marketing authorisation in the European Union (EU) for Vevzuo and Evfraxy biosimilars of Denosumab.

3) Bharat Forge (+0.37%) gains after acquiring AAM India manufacturing (AAMIMCPL) at an equity value of Rs 746.46 crore.

4) Steel stocks were in action on reports that Ministry of Steel has noted that India is the only major economy, where steel consumption is growing at above 12% for the last three years. SAIL jumped 2.3% higher while Tata Steel gained 0.97%.

5) Gabriel India spurted 42% after the company’s board approved a comprehensive restructuring scheme aimed at transforming the company into a diversified mobility solutions provider.

6) Bajaj Auto (-0.04%) traded sluggish after reporting total auto sales of 3,60,806 units for June 2025, which is higher by 1% as compared with the figure of 3,58,477 units recorded in June 2024.

7) Karnataka Bank (-6.7%) dropped after the bank’s board has accepted the resignation of managing director (MD) & chief executive officer (CEO), Srikrishnan Hari Hara Sarma, effective from 15 July 2025.

8) Alembic Pharmaceuticals surged 4% after the company received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Doxorubicin Hydrochloride Liposome Injection.

9) Trent slumped 11.37% after the company’s Q1 FY26 business update came in below market expectations, prompting concerns over its growth momentum.

In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:

APOLLO HOSPITALS (+3.35%)
BEL (+3.15%)
ASIAN PAINTS (+2.78%)
ULTRATECH CEMENT (+2.40%)
INFOSYS (+2.03%)

And the losers were:

TRENT (-9.36%)
AXIS BANK (-3.88%)
KOTAK MAH BANK (-3.54%)
SHRIRAM FINANCE (-3.49%)
TATA CNSUMER (-3.08%)

WHAT’S NEXT FOR NIFTY?

Technically, Nifty forms a small bearish candle on the weekly charts, indicating tough resistance to continue at recent highs at 25669 area.

Aggressive upside bullish targets still continue to be at Nifty’s all-time-high at 26277.35 mark but that said, confirmation of strength only above Nifty 25700 mark.

Meanwhile, the biggest interweek support for Nifty will be at 25000 (low as on June 24th).

Our call of the week suggests to keep a close eye on the upcoming 2-biggest catalysts:

1) India and the US race to finalise a bilateral trade pact ahead of the July 9 deadline.

2) Q1 Corporate earnings season to start as TCS officially sets afire the ceremonial starters pistol for Q1 earning season.

Amidst this backdrop, expect volatility to be the hallmark

Also, commanding attention outside of the equities market is the speculation that President Donald Trump could name a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sooner rather than later.

Focus will also be on the release of the FOMC minutes, as traders look for further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction for the rest of the year. Fed Chair Powell has maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance.

Long Story Short: Nifty’s bullish constructive stance only above 25670 mark Until then caution should be the buzzword.

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