Trump’s tariff scare has taken the centre stage yet again!
The US President Donald Trump on Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, raising total US duties to around 130%, which will be in effect from November 1.
The action is one of the most major escalations in US-China trade tensions since the 2018 tariff war. Washington’s move responds to China’s stringent restrictions on rare-earth exports, which are vital for the US defence, clean-energy, and technology sectors.
The result: Wall Street cracked hard; tumbling nearly 2% in Friday’s session. Hence, it seems to be an indirect message to India as well that no deal with America is a final-deal. It may worsen any moment.
Hence, it is going to be a cautious week ahead.
On the technical front, the Nifty will look to defend support at 25000 while 25670 remains a critical resistance zone.
The broader market undertone stays constructive, aided by a steady pickup in foreign institutional inflows (FII) and sustained domestic investor participation.
However, traders should remain alert to short-term volatility, as fluctuations in U.S. bond yields or commodity prices could lead to intermittent profit-taking phases.
Any unexpected moves on these fronts could influence foreign fund flows and currency stability, thereby impacting Indian equities.
Key Earnings on Radar
The earnings calendar promises to be eventful:
October 11 – Avenue Supermarts (DMart).
October 13 – HCL Technologies.
October 14 – ICICI Lombard, ICICI Prudential, Persistent Systems, and Tech Mahindra.
October 15 – Axis Bank, HDFC AMC, and HDFC Life.
October 16 – Heavyweights Infosys, Jio Financial, LTIMindtree, Mastek, Nestlé India, Wipro, and Zee Entertainment.
October 17 – Reliance Industries, the centerpiece of the earnings season.
With global cues in flux and a dense corporate results calendar ahead, the coming week is likely to see stock-specific action dominate trading patterns. Investors may find opportunities in quality names where earnings visibility remains robust — while maintaining a balanced, risk-aware stance.
Bottom-line: The only thing which could glitter brighter than Gold and Silver could well be the Nifty index – confirmation of strength only above Nifty 25670 mark.
The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 24000-26000 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 26000 followed by 25500 strike prices. 25500 mark is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 24000 levels followed by 25000 levels. Call writing was seen at 25100 and then at 25300 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 24500 and then at 24600 strike prices.
Price Forecast:
Nifty CMP (25285)
Support : 24951/24560
RESISTANCE: 25670/26277
RANGE: 24988-25541
200 DMA: 24189
Nifty PCR: 1.07
BIAS: Neutral
Bank Nifty CMP (56610)
Support: 55200/53800
RESISTANCE: 57500/59000
RANGE: 55300-57350
200 DMA 53326
BankNifty PCR: 1.12
BIAS: Neutral
Preferred trade for the week:
Nifty (25285): Buy between 25075-25125 zone. Targets at 25337/25670. Aggressive targets at 26277 zone. Stop at 24489.
TOP SECTORS
Bullish Sectors: BANKS, METALS,
Bearish Sector: IT, MEDIA,
STOCKS IN FOCUS:
BULLISH VIEW: SAMMAANCAP, FEDERALBNK, CIPLA, JIOFIN, BEL, MARUTI, INDHOTEL, L&T, CDSL, POLYCAB, PGEL, NYKAA, HUDCO, ULTRACEMCO, DIXON< AMBER
BEARISH VIEW: TATAELXSI, TCS, MAZDOCK, UNOMINDA, PNBHOUSING, OFSS, SOLARINDS, SIEMENS, MPHASIS, PAGEIND.
CHART OF THE WEEK: Buy Cholamandalam Investment & Finance (CHOLAFIN)
Cholamandalam Investment & Finance BUY
CMP 1614
Target Price 1901
Stop 1403
52 Week H/L 1683.65/1167.60
P/E 30.5
EPS (TTM) 52.93
Promoter Holding/FIIs/DIIs/FIIs/Public 49.90%/27.96%/16.05%/6.07%%
Book Value 281
Market Cap (INR) 135819 crores
Incorporated in 1978, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance (Chola) is a financial services arm of the Murugappa Group. The Murugappa Group is a heritage business house based in Chennai, with interests spanning agriculture, engineering, financial services and more.
Chola began as an equipment finance company, and over time evolved into a diversified NBFC offering a range of lending products like, Vehicle Finance (a core pillar of its portfolio), home loans, home equity loans, SME loans, customer durables loans, gold loans, investment advisory services, stock broking and various other financial services to customers. Chola operates from 2481 touch points across India, with assets under management above INR 207663 Crores.
Chola operates through a vast distribution network — 1,600+ branches across India (various states & union territories) and serves over 43 lakh+ customers. Its Assets Under Management (AUM) tops ₹2.05 lakh crore+
Key Strengths & Competitive Advantages
1) Strong brand & parent backing: Part of the Murugappa group gives trust, governance, and financial backing.
2) Diversified product suite: Not dependent on a single vertical; can balance segments.
3) Extensive branch network: Helps reach underserved markets where competition is lower and yields higher.
4) Focus on used / small commercial vehicles & rural SMEs: A niche where many NBFCs have lower presence.
Risks / Challenges: Credit risk / NPAs: Being a finance company, asset quality is a perennial risk — especially in downturns or with stress in commercial vehicle / SME segments.
Key Financial Results (Q1 FY26):
Total AUM as of 30th Jun 2025 was at ₹ 2,07,663 Cr (Up by 23% YoY)
Net Income for the quarter was at ₹ 3,864 Cr (Up 27% YoY)
PAT for the quarter was at ₹ 1,136 Cr (Up by 21% YoY)
The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the company as of 30th June 2025, was at 19.96% as against the regulatory requirement of 15%.
Technical Outlook: The stock at the moment is witnessing massive bullish consolidation and aiming to breakout on the long-term charts and that’s on backdrop of one way up move since December 2024 2025 low at Rs 1168.
Major supports are now placed at 1475-1500 zone. The 200 DMA is placed at 1478 levels. The recent sequence of higher high/low is intact on the daily and weekly charts time frames. A move above all-time-high at 1684 is likely to lift the stock to new uncharted territories.
Preferred Strategy: Look to buy at CMP, and on dips between 1500-1525 zone, targeting 1685/1751, and then aggressive targets at 1950-200 zone. Stop below 1403. Holding Period 9-12 Months.
Disclaimer: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.