The biggest event of the week is the FOMC outcome.

Nifty is likely to the start the week on a positive note as investors shall welcome a softer-than-expected US inflation report that strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts.

The US CPI inflation data also suggested that tariff-related inflationary pressures remain contained for now.

The biggest event for next week will be monetary policy decisions, with Federal Reserve’s FOMC heading into meeting on October 28-29th without its usual data due to the US government shutdown

The street is fully pricing in another 25bps rate cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%–4%.

Apart from that, all eyes will also be on Q3 GDP figures releasing in the USA on Thursday, October 30th 2025.

Near-term cues to watch include Q2 earnings,

 Monday (October 27): Indian Oil Corporation, Adani Energy Solutions, Indus Towers, and SRF.

 Tuesday (October 28): TVS Motor Company, Adani Green Energy, Tata Capital, and Shree Cements.

 Wednesday (October 29): Larsen & Toubro, Coal India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and United Breweries.

 Thursday (October 30): ITC, Pidilite Industries, Cipla, Canara Bank, and Dabur India.

 Friday (October 31): Maruti Suzuki India, Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, Godrej Consumer Products, and ACC.

Amongst IPOs this week, Orkla India Ltd. IPO is a book build issue of ₹1,667.54 crores. The issue is entirely an offer for sale of 2.28 crore shares of ₹1,667.54 crore. The IPO opens for subscription on Oct 29, 2025 and closes on Oct 31, 2025. The allotment is expected to be finalized on Nov 3, 2025. The IPO will list on BSE, NSE with a tentative listing date fixed as Nov 6, 2025.

On the technical front, the Nifty will look to defend support at 25450 while on the upside targets remain at Nifty’s all-time-high at 26277.35 mark and then aggressive targets at psychological 27000 mark.

The broader market undertone stays constructive, aided by a steady pickup in foreign institutional inflows (FII) and sustained domestic investor participation.

Some volatility also expected as October F&O contracts expire on Tuesday, October 28th 2025.

Bottom-line: Well, the only thing which could glitter brighter than Gold and Silver could be the Nifty index – confirmation of strength only above Nifty 26277.35 mark.

The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 25000-27000 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 26000 followed by 26500 strike prices. 26000 mark is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 25500 levels followed by 25000 levels. Call writing was seen at 25900 and then at 26000 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 25300 and then at 25400 strike prices.

Price Forecast:

Nifty CMP (25795)
Support : 25300/24851
RESISTANCE: 26000/26500
RANGE: 25511-26100
200 DMA: 24269
Nifty PCR: 0.65
BIAS: Positive

Bank Nifty CMP (57700)
Support: 56800/55000
RESISTANCE: 59000/60700
RANGE: 56900-58650
200 DMA 53472
BankNifty PCR: 0.84
BIAS: Positive

Preferred trade for the week:

Nifty (25795): Buy at CMP. Targets at 26000/26277. Aggressive targets at 26500 zone. Stop at 25299.

TOP SECTORS

Bullish Sectors: BANKS, AUTO, FMCG, IT, PHARMA

Bearish Sector: MEDIA

STOCKS IN FOCUS:

BULLISH VIEW: SAMMAANCAP, ICICIBANK, BEL, NATIONALUM, HINDALCO, INOXWIND, AMBER, FEDERALBNK

BEARISH VIEW: HUL, CIPLA, TITAN, INDIGO, DMART, TRENT, MCX, APOLLOHOSP, DIXO, KAYNES, BSOCHLTD, SHREECEM, ULTRACEMCO.

GRASIM
GRASIM
BUY
CMP 2841
Target Price 3701
Stop 2271
52 Week H/L 2912/2276
P/E 45.50
EPS (TTM) 2.15
Promoter Holding/FIIs/DIIs/FIIs/Public 43.11%/13.79%/17.91%/24.87%
Book Value 1433
Market Cap (INR) 193356

Company Overview

• Incorporated / Founded: 1947. Headquarters: Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
• Nature of Business: A diversified industrial conglomerate of the Aditya Birla Group, with core operations in viscose (cellulosic fibres), chemicals / chlor-alkali, building materials (cement, paints, construction), textiles, and newer ventures (paints, digital / B2B marketplace).
• Subsidiaries / Linkages: UltraTech Cement, Aditya Birla Capital, Birla Opus (paints) and “Birla Pivot” (B2B building materials marketplace).
• Geographic / Segment Spread: Grasim has plants in multiple states in India (e.g. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka) for its fibre, chemical and building materials segments.
• Strategic Moves & Expansion: Entered decorative paints business under brand Birla Opus — aims to set up six plants across India.

Key Strengths & Competitive Advantages

• Diversification & Portfolio Balance: Grasim is not dependent on a single vertical—viscose fibre, chemicals, building materials, newer segments like paints and digital play provide balance.
• Scale & Vertical Integration: In viscose and chemicals, Grasim benefits from scale economies and integration (raw materials, inputs) which help margin resilience.
• Strong Legacy & Brand Trust: Being part of the Aditya Birla Group provides reputational strength, access to capital and group synergies.
• New Growth Engines: The paints business (Birla Opus) and B2B platform (Birla Pivot) are high-potential ventures aimed at future revenue and margin contributions.
• Cement / Building Material Leverage: Through UltraTech (its cement arm) and synergies with building materials, Grasim has exposure to India’s infra and real estate growth.
• Operational Efficiency in Chemicals & Cement: In Q1 FY26, improved profitability in chemical and cement verticals contributed to strong consolidated performance.

Risks & Challenges

• Margin Dilution from New Ventures: Paints and digital / B2B platforms require heavy initial investments; early drag on margins is possible.
• Commodity / Input Volatility: Chemicals, energy, pulp, and other inputs are subject to global price swings which can compress margins.
• Cyclicality of End Markets: Cement / building materials are sensitive to real estate cycles, interest rates, and macro slowdown.

Key Financial Results (Q1 FY26)

Metric Q1 FY26 YoY Growth / Notes
Consolidated Revenue ₹ 40,118 crore ↑ 16% YoY
EBITDA ₹ 6,430 crore ↑ 36% YoY
PAT (owners’ share) ₹ 1,419 crore ↑ 32% YoY

Technical Outlook: The recent sequence of higher high/low is intact in all time frames with bullish a probable ‘bullish Flag’ pattern break on the weekly charts. The 200-DMA of the stock is around 2656 levels and will act as major support.

Preferred Strategy: Look to buy at CMP, and on dips between 2500-2550 zone, targeting 2911/3251, and then aggressive targets at 3650-3701 zone. Stop below 2289. Holding Period 9-12 Months.

Disclaimer: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.

September 20th to October 24th

Bullish momentum eased, but the good news — Nifty’s uptrend stays firmly intact.

The benchmark logged its fourth straight weekly gain, marking the first such winning streak of 2025.

Nifty (+0.33%, 25795)
Sensex (+0.31%, 84212)
Bank Nifty (-0.02%, 57700)

Well, Diwali festive cheer swept through Dalal Street in the week gone by, though bullish sentiments remained cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the India-US trade deal.

Also, hurting sentiments were 2-catalysts:

a) Oil prices spiked to $62.15 a barrel after President Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s top oil majors, Rosneft and Lukoil.

b) US-China trade tensions resurfaced, following reports that the White House is considering restrictions on U.S. software exports to China.

Long Story Short: Looks like, sometimes a little uncertainty and little consolidation is just what the market needs.

Hopefully, the much-awaited rebound happens next week as Nifty bulls aim to take over the positive baton from the super bullish Wall Street indices which came back roaring in Friday’s trade…

Weekly Recap:
Instruments LTP Weekly % Change
Nifty 25795 +0.33%
Sensex 84212 +0.31%
BankNifty 57700 (-0.62%)
Nifty Midcap 15660 +0.85%
India VIX 11.59 (-0.30%)

Dow 47207 +2.18%
Nasdaq 25358 +3.61%
Bovespa 146172 +1.93%

Crude Oil 62.01 +8.51%
Gold 4135 (-2.69%)
Silver 48.79 (-6.05%)
USD/INR 87.85 (-0.17%)

Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

1) Nifty (+0.33%) gained for the 4th consecutive week and is now way above its 21 DMA (25222), 50 DMA (25035) and its 100 DMA (25030). Nifty’s 200 DMA at 24269 mark.

Please note, Nifty has surged 4.81% in October so far.

2) Bank Nifty (-0.65%) was seen mirroring Nifty’s consolidative action. But the positive takeaway was that Bank Nifty scaled fresh all-time-high at 58577.50 mark.

Bank Nifty’s 200-DMA is at 53608 mark.

3) Nifty Private Bank index inched 0.34% higher while Nifty PSU Bank index gained 2.34% higher.

4) The broader markets however traded with positive bias with Nifty Mid-cap 50 index gaining +0.85% while the Nifty Small-cap index ended 0.72% higher.

Bullish Sectors:

Nifty IT (+2.96%)
Nifty Metal (+1.45%)
Nifty Media (+1.35%)
Nifty Oil & Gas (+1.10%)
Nifty Realty (+0.77%)
Nifty Energy (+0.65%)
Nifty Infra (+0.63%)
Nifty Pharma (+0.47%)

Bearish Sectors:

Nifty FMCG (-0.47%)
Nifty Auto (-0.44%)

STOCK SPECIFIC NEWS:

1) Federal Bank (+7.07%) gained after board approves capital raise proposal worth Rs 6,196.51 crore. The bank’s board approved a proposal to grant 27.29 crore warrants at a price of Rs 227 apiece to Asia II Topco XIII, amounting to a total cash consideration of Rs 6,196.51 crore.

2) Cipla (+0.43%) consolidated after the company announced that it has entered into an agreement with Eli Lilly to distribute tirzepatide in India under the brand name Yurpeak. The drug, indicated for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and obesity, will be priced at par with Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.

3) Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) plunged 3.35% after the firm posted a 4% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit for Q2 FY26 to Rs 2,694 crore, but aided by a one-off tax gain.

4) Infosys (+5.85%) jumped after promoters and promoter group, including Nandan M Nilekani and Sudha Murty, decided not to participate in the company’s Rs 18,000 crore share buyback.

5) Epack Prefab Technologies (+34.29%) gained after the company’s consolidated net profit surged 104.2% to Rs 29.47 crore on 61.9% increase in net sales to Rs 433.94 crore in Q2 FY26 over Q2 FY25.

5) Bharat Electronics (BEL) rose 2.24% after the company has announced that it has secured order valued at Rs 633 crore from Cochin Shipyard.

6) Reliance (+2.46%) gained post its robust Q2. RIL Q2FY26 results: Net profit rose 14% to ₹22,092 crore, revenue up 10%

7) HDFC Bank (-0.76%) consolidated post its Q2 net profit which rose 11% YoY to Rs 18,641 crore; asset quality improves, comfortably surpassed Street estimates. Asset quality improved on a yearly basis.

8) ICICI Bank (-4.10%) tumbled post its Q2 net profit which rose to Rs 12,359 crore, driven by lower provisions and strong core performance.

9) UltraTech Cement (-3.65%) plunged post its Q2 net profit which jumped 75% on-year to Rs 1,232 crore, announces Rs 10,255 crore for capacity expansion

10) PNB (+2.85%) gained after the it reported a 14% year-on-year rise in net profit for the September quarter, supported by steady business growth, improved asset quality, and robust digital adoption. PNB’s net profit rose to ₹4,904 crore, up from ₹4,304 crore in the year-ago period.

In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:

HINDALCO (+6.68%)
SHRIRAM FINANCE (+5.91%)
INFOSYS (+5.85%)
BAJAJ FINANCE (+3.64%)
AXIS BANK (+3.47%)

And the losers were:

ETERNAL (-4.68%)
ICICI BANK (-4.10%)
ULTRATECH CEMENT (-3.65%)
ADANI PORT (-3.41%)
HUL (-3.35%)

WHAT’S NEXT FOR NIFTY?

Nifty is likely to the start the week on a positive note as investors shall welcome a softer-than-expected US inflation report that strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts.

The US CPI inflation data also suggested that tariff-related inflationary pressures remain contained for now.

The biggest event for next week will be monetary policy decisions, with Federal Reserve’s FOMC heading into meeting on October 28-29th without its usual data due to the US government shutdown

The street is fully pricing in another 25bps rate cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%–4%.

Near-term cues to watch include Q2 earnings,

 Monday (October 27): Indian Oil Corporation, Adani Energy Solutions, Indus Towers, and SRF.

 Tuesday (October 28): TVS Motor Company, Adani Green Energy, Tata Capital, and Shree Cements.

 Wednesday (October 29): Larsen & Toubro, Coal India, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and United Breweries.

 Thursday (October 30): ITC, Pidilite Industries, Cipla, Canara Bank, and Dabur India.

 Friday (October 31): Maruti Suzuki India, Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, Godrej Consumer Products, and ACC.

On the technical front, the Nifty will look to defend support at 25450 while on the upside targets remain at Nifty’s all-time-high at 26277.35 mark and then aggressive targets at psychological 27000 mark.

The broader market undertone stays constructive, aided by a steady pickup in foreign institutional inflows (FII) and sustained domestic investor participation.

Bottom-line: Well, the only thing which could glitter brighter than Gold and Silver could be the Nifty index – confirmation of strength only above Nifty 26277.35 mark.

Disclaimer/ Disclosure: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.