GIFT Nifty 🇮🇳: (-9, 26180)
Market Recap:
The 2-positive takeaways from yesterday’s rebounding session:
1) Nifty snapped its 4-day losing streak.
2) Nifty managed to end above psychological 26000 mark.
That said, Bank Nifty (-0.10%) inched lower after a volatile trade.
The 2-Big Questions:
What’s Next for Benchmark Nifty?
Our Call of the Day: A wrecking ball is still dangling — signaling that a major, potentially damaging move could be just around the corner.
The Key Catalysts Ahead:
1) The RBI policy decision and US payrolls on December 5 — potentially a major volatility trigger.
2) Geopolitics enters the frame with Putin’s India visit (Dec 4–5),
RBI MPC Meeting: Rate Cut or Pause?
All eyes turn towards RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who chairs the MPC, and shall announce the outcome at 10 am.
Bulls will hope that the RBI cuts rates by 25 bp bringing down the policy repo rate to 5.25% as inflation is set to remain well below target for the foreseeable future
Please note, India’s GDP grew a strong 8.2% in the September quarter, while CPI inflation eased to a record low of 0.25% in October 2025. This marks the ninth straight month below the RBI’s 4% target and the third month below its 2% lower tolerance band — strengthening calls for the central bank to cut rates further.
Hopefully, a rate cut from the RBI works as the magical spark that could revive momentum and put the rally back on track.
What Technicals Tells Us On Nifty:
Technically, Nifty’s near-term trend stays vulnerable as long as it trades below its all-time high of 26,326, with sellers defending every bounce.
Bulls Kneel and Pray as Bears Dominate — but Nifty’s 25,703 Support Still Holds the Key.
The Biggest Headwinds:
1) Manufacturing PMI Slumps to a nine-month low at 56.6.
2) Rupee weakness deepens to hit a fresh lifetime low of ₹90.43 per USD.
3) Relentless FII Selling: YTD FII outflows have swollen to ₹1,42,434 crore.
Putin visiting India — Good for defence stocks?
1) Defence stocks are in the spotlight as Russian President Vladimir Putin begins his first India visit in four years.
In yesterday’s trade, counters like HAL (+1.89%), BDL (+3.7%), and BEL (+1.25%) drew strong investor interest amid expectations that the visit will accelerate key defence agreements covering air-defence systems, fighter aircraft, and missile technologies.
Bottom-line: An up-and-down session is quite likely as overbought technical conditions + weakening momentum + FIIs selling + Weaking INR + no new triggers = bears back in action.
STOCKS IN SPOTLIGHT:
1) Petronet LNG (+4.54%) jumped after the company signed a long-term agreement with ONGC to develop and operate ethane import and handling infrastructure at its Dahej terminal — a move that strengthens its positioning in India’s evolving gas value chain.
2) Interglobal Aviation (-2.39%, 5472) plunged after IndiGo cancelled over 100 flights on December 3, 2025, across major airports — Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru — with scores of additional delays.
The root cause: a combination of factors — primarily a crew shortage triggered by new regulatory norms on flight-duty time (FDTL), which came into effect recently.
As per latest PTI report, IndiGo says operations will be restored by Feb 10, 2026.
(Source: thefederal.com, Business Standard, Moneycontrol, Economictimes, Capitalmarket)
Long Story Short: Nifty’s rally is at a crossroads with stronger headwinds for now — but a dovish RBI could still pull a rabbit out of the hat and propel the index back toward its all-time high of 26,325.80.
For the moment, the bears appear to have the marginal advantage.
Caution is the buzzword!
Now, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:
Nifty (26034): Sell at CMP. Stop 26521. Targets 25901/25703. Aggressive targets at 25300-25500 zone.
Bank Nifty (59289): Sell at CMP. Stop at 60701. Targets 58900/58300. Aggressive targets at 57157-57500 zone.
Our chart of the day is bearish on COAL INDIA, INDIGO, and CDSL on any early excessive intraday strength with an interweek/Intermonth perspective.
The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now: Buy UPL at CMP 756. Stop at 717. Targets 775/803. Aggressive targets at 829. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Signaling a massive breakout on the upside. Key interweek support 723. Major hurdles only at 775 mark. The recent sequence of higher high/low is intact on all-time-frame. 200-DMA at 676.50.
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