The big question: Will India really benefit from any tariff deal with USA?

The India-US interim trade deal remains elusive with less than a week to go before the July 9 reciprocal tariff pause runs out. According to a government official, Indian negotiators returned Friday, adding that the negotiations are not contingent on any specific date and that both countries will sign a deal only if it is mutually beneficial.

Amidst this backdrop, expect volatility to be the hallmark for the week ahead.

Also, commanding attention outside of the equities market is the speculation that President Donald Trump could name a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sooner rather than later.

Focus will also be on the release of the FOMC minutes, as traders look for further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction for the rest of the year. Fed Chair Powell has maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance.

Back at home, Q1 earnings season is gearing up with TCS officially setting afire the ceremonial starter’s pistol of Q1 earnings. Of late, India’s GDP growth is again turned towards north. Not only that, the inflation has also come down drastically as we are at a five or a six-year low. RBI is expected to deliver more rate cuts in 2025. Hence, net-net we may see improving numbers in Q1FY25 when compared to Q4 FY25 marginally.

Apart from earnings, the IPO market will remain hot as well where Travel Food Services IPO opens for subscription on July 7, 2025 and closes on July 9, 2025. The allotment for the Travel Food Services IPO is expected to be finalized on Thursday, July 10, 2025. Travel Food Services IPO will be listed on BSE, NSE with a tentative listing date fixed as Monday, July 14, 2025.

Technically, Nifty forms a small bearish candle on the weekly charts, indicating tough resistance to continue at recent highs at 25669 area.

Aggressive upside bullish targets still continue to be at Nifty’s all-time-high at 26277.35 mark but that said, confirmation of strength only above Nifty 25700 mark.

Meanwhile, the biggest interweek support for Nifty will be at 25000 (low as on June 24th).

Long Story Short: Nifty’s bullish constructive stance only above 25670 mark Until then caution should be the buzzword

The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 24500-26500 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 26000 followed by 25500 strike prices. 26000 mark is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 25000 levels followed by 24500 levels. Call writing was seen at 25700 and then at 25900 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 25500 and then at 25400 strike prices.

Price Forecast:

Nifty CMP (25461)
Support : 25000/24722
RESISTANCE: 25750/26277
RANGE: 25222-25699
200 DMA: 24090
Nifty PCR: 1.19
BIAS: Neutral

Bank Nifty CMP (57032)
Support: 56100/54700
RESISTANCE: 58888/60251
RANGE: 56100-58300
200 DMA: 52173
BankNifty PCR: 0.96
BIAS: Neutral

Preferred trade for the week:

Nifty (25461): Buy between 25355-25375 zone. Targets at 25741/26000. Aggressive targets at 26277 zone. Stop at 25199

TOP SECTORS

Bullish Sector: AUTO, METALS, IT, PHARMA

Bearish Sector: REALTY, MEDIA

STOCKS IN FOCUS:

BULLISH VIEW: HINDPETRO, IEX, SBIN, LUPIN, AUROPHARMA, AUBANK, BIOCON, DIVISLABS, SBICARD

BEARISH VIEW: UPL, TRENT, CONCOR, DMART, PIDILITE, PERSISTENT, CAMS, JSL, PGEL, SHREECEM

GULF OIL

Gulf Oil Lubricants is signalling a massive breakout!

Gulf Oil Lubricants (CMP 1267): Market Cap (Rs 6,245 Cr.)

Incorporated in the year 2008, Gulf Oil Lubricants is a part of the Hinduja Group, one of the world’s largest and most diverse business conglomerates with presence across 38 countries.

Gulf Oil Lubricants is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing and trading of automotive and non-automotive lubricants. It is among the top three lubricant companies in India. High domestic consumption, robust infrastructure creation and favourable demographics further fuel overall industry growth.

India’s lubricant market is likely to grow at a volume CAGR of 3% through 2032* . Among the top five major lubricants-consuming countries globally, India is the only one with strong lubricant demand growth potential. Over the next decade, despite the emergence of electric vehicles, lubricant consumption in India will continue to grow at a decent pace both in volume and value.

The Hinduja Group acquired Gulf Oil International Ltd in 1984. As on date, Market Capitalization of Gulf Oil India stock is Rs 6,245 Cr.

Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd. (GOLIL) reported a consolidated net profit of ₹92.19 crore for Q4 FY25, a 6.91% increase compared to ₹86.24 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. The company’s revenue from operations also saw a rise, reaching ₹952.74 crore, a 9.56% increase year-on-year.

Key Highlights:

• Revenue: ₹952.74 crore, up 9.56% YoY.
• Net Profit: ₹92.19 crore, up 6.91% YoY.
• EBITDA: Increased by 8.20% to ₹124.47 crore.
• EBITDA Margin: Increased by 11 basis points to 13.60%.
• Dividend: The board recommended a final dividend of ₹28 per equity share for FY25.
• Volume Growth: The company reported record Q4 volume sales, exceeding 39,500 kiloliters.
• Market Share: GOLIL increased its market share across key segments, with volume growth at twice the industry rate.

Other notable points:
• Gulf Oil Lubricants is a part of the Hinduja Group and a leading player in the Indian lubricants industry,
• The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the EV ecosystem through investments in Tirex Chargers and other companies.
• Gulf Oil is also investing in branding and marketing, including a major campaign featuring M.S. Dhoni.

Technically speaking, the stock is in bullish momentum on the long long-term charts with the 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at 1181 zone. The stock is signalling a massive breakout from a probable ‘higher consolidation zone’ on the monthly charts. The level of 1175-1185 zone will act as a strong support zone in the long term.

Preferred Strategy: Look to accumulate at CMP, and on dips between 1175-1185 zone, targeting 1333/1401 and then aggressive targets at psychological 1550 with stop below 1139. Holding Period: 12-15 months.

Disclaimer: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.
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