RBI MPC outcome will be the focal point for the week

Nifty slipped in Friday’s trade, pressured by weak global cues and renewed worries over stretched valuations in the AI and tech space.

The 2-big questions:

1) Has the recent rally run out of steam?
2) Can Nifty recover after Friday’s sharp sell-off?

For now, the correction appears more like profit-booking rather than a trend reversal. The index is expected to consolidate and attempt another push toward its all-time high of 26,277.35.

The 2-Biggest Headwinds in near term:

1) Concerns over stretched AI valuations remain.

2) Rapidly fading expectations of a December U.S. Fed rate cut.

Despite the caution, Nifty bulls could regroup on backdrop of optimism surrounding a potential US–India trade agreement.

Please note, despite the steep 50% U.S. duty, India’s export decline has been relatively moderate, giving policymakers leverage — especially with growing signals of a potential tariff rollback.

GDP Snapshot:

India’s GDP growth data for the quarter ending 30 September 2025 is due on Friday, November 28th. The economy previously expanded 7.8% YoY in Q1 FY26, accelerating from 7.4%, marking the strongest growth in five quarters. Markets will be keen to see if this momentum continues.

Bottom-line: Nifty may rise, but volatility shall persist; also due to November F&O expiry due this Tuesday.

Now, as we step into a fresh week and also into a fresh month, all eyes turn to auto sales figures for November, releasing on Monday, December 1st. Apart from that, all eyes will also be on November GST Collection figures.

Also, Meesho’s Rs. 5421.20 crore IPO is set to open for subscription on Dec 3, 2025 and closes on Dec 5, 2025. The allotment is expected to be finalized on Dec 8, 2025. Meesho IPO will list on BSE, NSE with a tentative listing date fixed as Dec 10, 2025.

But the focal point of this week will be the RBI MPC outcome, to be wired on Friday, December 5th. As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prepares to announce its monetary policy next week in the backdrop of benign inflation, stable liquidity, and robust macroeconomic conditions, expectations are high that the central bank will cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The RBI has held rates at 5.5% since August after a cumulative 100 bps of cuts in the first half of the year.

The Nifty options data suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading range of 25500-27000 zone. Maximum Call OI is at 26000 followed by 27000 strike prices. 27000 mark is now Nifty’s major resistance zone on closing basis. Maximum Put open interest stands at 26000 levels followed by 25000 levels. Call writing was seen at 26300 and then at 26500 strike price, while there was meaningful Put writing at 26100 and then at 25900 strike prices.

Price Forecast:

Nifty CMP (26203)
Support : 25940/25500
RESISTANCE: 26600/26851
RANGE: 25955-26477
200 DMA: 24578
Nifty PCR: 1.21
BIAS: Positive

Bank Nifty CMP (59753)
Support: 58200/57000
RESISTANCE: 60500/62000
RANGE: 58700-60300
200 DMA 54737
BankNifty PCR: 1.19
BIAS: Positive

Preferred trade for the week:

Nifty (26203): Buy on dips between 26122-26133 zone. Targets at 26375/26600. Aggressive targets at 26850 zone. Stop at 25920.

TOP SECTORS

Bullish Sectors: BANKS, IT, AUTO, METALS

Bearish Sector: MEDIA, FMCG, POWER

STOCKS IN FOCUS:

BULLISH VIEW: FEDERALBNK, RELIANCE, SBIN, PGEL, ASHOKLEY, M&M, NUVAMA, SRF, HEROMOTOCORP

BEARISH VIEW: GAIL, TIINDIA, ASTRAL, KAYNES, CAMS, SBILIFE, PERSISTENT, SOLARINDS, DIXON, SHREECEM, PAGEIND, BOSCHLTD, POLYCAB.

Kalyan Jewellers India

BUY

CMP 505

Target Price 600
Stop 431
52 Week H/L 794.60/399.20
P/E 56
EPS (TTM) 8.93
Promoter Holding/FIIs/DIIs/FIIs/Public 62.77%/14.12%/14.56%/8.54%
Book Value 51.70
Market Cap (INR) 52186

Company Overview:
Kalyan Jewellers was founded in 1993 by T. S. Kalyanaraman, with its first store in Thrissur, Kerala and now is one of India’s largest jewellery retailers with a network of 315+ showrooms across India, the Middle East, and beyond.
It offers a wide range of products: gold, diamond, gemstone, platinum and more — catering to different customer segments.
In addition to physical retail, Kalyan expanded its online presence after acquiring full control of online jewellery-brand Candere in 2024.
In short: Kalyan Jewellers is a full-scale, pan-India (and global diaspora) jewellery chain, building on decades of legacy and scaling up both offline and online presence.

Key Strengths & Competitive Advantages:

Strong retail footprint + brand equity: With 300+ stores and presence across tier-1 to tier-3 cities, the company enjoys broad visibility and reach.
Omnichannel presence: Offline + online (via Candere) helps capture both traditional buyers and younger, digital-first consumers — giving flexibility in changing demand dynamics.
Diversified product mix & market segments: From mass-market jewellery to premium offerings, across gold, diamond, and gemstone reduces reliance on a single customer segment.
Strong Q2 FY26 performance: The recent surge in profit and revenue suggests improving demand, better cost control, and rebound in consumer sentiment.

Scalable growth via store expansion + changing consumer preferences: Rising disposable incomes, festive demand, and a shift toward branded jewellery over unorganized retail favor listed players benefit jewellers like Kalyan.

Risks & Challenges

Gold-price volatility: Jewellery demand is sensitive to gold price fluctuations; sharp spikes can hurt demand and margins.

Working-capital intensity & inventory risk.

Key Financial Results (Q2FY26):

(Q2 FY26), Kalyan Jewellers posted a net profit of Rs. 260 crore, nearly doubling from ₹130.3 crore in the same quarter last year.

Revenue from operations rose 30% year-on-year to Rs. 7,856 crore in Q2 FY26.

On an annual scale, the company’s turnover grew sharply over the years according to one source, TTM revenue is now close to Rs. 29,000+ crore.

In terms of profitability metrics: Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is around 15%, Return on Equity (ROE) ~ 16%.

Market cap stands among the top in the jewellery retail space.

Technical Outlook: The stock at the moment is signalling massive consolidation breakout on the upside, confirmation of strength above its biggest hurdles at 530 levels. The stocks 200-DMA is placed at 517 levels.

Preferred Strategy: Look to buy at CMP, and on dips between 460-475 zone, targeting 530/565, and then aggressive targets at 613 mark. Stop below 431. Holding Period 9-12 Months.

Disclaimer: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.

November 24th to November 28th 2025

The Good News: Nifty extended its winning streak for the third straight week!

The bullish sentiments pushed Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty to fresh all-time highs.

The positive takeaway was that the breakout marks the end of a 14-month consolidation phase and signals the potential start of the next major leg of the rally.

Yipee…

Nifty (+0.52%, 26203)
Sensex (+0.56%, 85707)
Bank Nifty (+1.5%, 59753)

Strictly speaking, the fundamental, technical and sentimental stock market backdrop remains robust. The Biggest Positive Catalysts:

1) Positioning has begun ahead of the RBI’s final policy meeting of 2025 (Dec 3–5), where markets broadly expect a 25-bps rate cut, supported by repeated downside surprises in headline CPI inflation.

2) On the global front, expectations for a December US Fed rate cut have strengthened again. Futures positioning indicates traders now see a high probability of easing when the Fed meets on December 9–10—adding fuel to the risk-on sentiment.

Now, before we get into detail, here are new milestones clocked in the week gone by:

Nifty: 26,310.45
Sensex: 86,055.86
Bank Nifty: 59,897.50

Well, Nifty Auto Index too hit record highs driven by expectations of strong November wholesale figures.

Even the Nifty Auto Index joined the party, hitting fresh highs on expectations of robust November wholesale numbers.

Long Story Short: The bulls dominated the week — and now the key question is: Will the FPI comeback strongly?

With the macro backdrop turning firmly supportive, the mood on Dalal Street is upbeat — and the bulls now have their sights set on the next big psychological milestone: 27,000 on the Nifty.

Long live the bull.

Weekly Recap:
Instruments LTP Weekly % Change

Nifty 26203 +0.52%
Sensex 85707 +0.56%
Bank Nifty 59753 +1.50%
Nifty Midcap 16639 +1.37%
India VIX 11.62 (-14.77%)

Dow 47716 +3.18%
Nasdaq 25435 +4.93%
Bovespa 159072 +2.78%

Crude Oil 59.03 +1.63%
Gold 4176 +2.86%
Silver 53.80 +7.82%
USD/INR 89.46 (-0.17%)

Here are how indices performed in the week gone by:

1) Nifty (+0.52%) ringed gains for the 3rd straight week, and the positive takeaway was that the benchmark scaled new milestone at 26310.45.

Nifty is also way above its 21 DMA (25886), 50 DMA (25554), 100 DMA (25223) and Nifty’s 200 DMA at 24578 mark.

2) Bank Nifty (+1.5%) was well bid, a big outperfomer and the positive takeaway was that Bank Nifty managed scale new record all-time-high at 59897.50 mark.

Bank Nifty’s 200-DMA is at 54737 mark.

3) Both the Nifty Private Bank (+1.38%) and Nifty PSU Bank (+1.62%) indices surged to fresh all-time highs, signaling strong sector momentum and broad-based banking strength.

4) The broader markets traded, especially Nifty Mid-cap 50 index ended with smart gains, 1.37% while the Nifty Small-cap index wavered and inched 0.10% lower.

Bullish Sectors:
Nifty Pharma (+1.85%)
Nifty Media (+1.67%)
Nifty Metal (+1.48%)
Nifty IT (+1.41%)
Nifty Auto (+0.86%)
Nifty FMCG (+0.16%)

Bearish Sectors:
Nifty Energy (-0.85%)
Nifty Realty (-0.27%)
Nifty Infra (-0.08%)

STOCK SPECIFIC NEWS:

1) Zydus Lifesciences (+1.97%, ₹943) gained after receiving tentative USFDA approval for Empagliflozin + Linagliptin tablets (10mg/5mg & 25mg/5mg), used in diabetes treatment.

2) Escorts (+5.53%, ₹3817) and Ashok Leyland (+6.67%, ₹158.88) surged fueled by optimism in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment. (Source: economictimes)

3) Ashok Leyland (+9.28%, ₹1587) zoomed higher and hit fresh 52-Week high after announcing a strategic merger between its material subsidiary Hinduja Leyland Finance (HLFL) and NDL Ventures (formerly NXTDIGITAL).

4) MCX shares (+4.03%, ₹10074) gained and crossed the ₹10,000 mark for the first time, extending a remarkable rally. The stock has surged 132% in the past eight months, driven by strong volume growth and positive sentiment around the exchange business.

Year-to-date, MCX is up ~62% in 2025, following gains of 95% in 2024 and 106% in 2023, marking an exceptional multi-year bull run.

5) L&T (+1.11%, ₹4070) climbed, scaling fresh record high — as sentiment around the stock remains upbeat amidst strong order book visibility, execution strength, and continued government spending on infrastructure and defence.

6) Bharti Airtel (-2.83%, ₹2102) misses on the Gravy train amidst a block deal | Indian Continent Investment sold ₹7,100-crore stake.

7) Nelco (-1.23%, ₹305) was seen consolidating after securing additional Unified License (VNO) authorization, enabling broader VSAT service offerings.

8) SBI (+0.66, ₹979) hits a 52-week high of ₹988.95 on news that the GOI may raise FDI limit from 20% to 49%.

9) Shriram Finance (+3.44%, 852) touches a 52-week high following its recent solid Q2FY26: disbursements up 10.2% Y-o-Y to ₹49,019 crore; AUM up 15.7% Y-o-Y to ₹2.8 trillion.

10) Trent plunged toward its 52-week low of ₹4,250 after Q2 FY25 earnings showed moderating revenue growth, prompting a cautious outlook.

11) Muthoot Microfin (+2.98%, ₹3744) surged after the company announced that its board will meet on 27 November 2025 to consider raising funds through non-convertible debentures (NCDs) via private placement.

12) Glenmark Pharmaceuticals rallied 5.53%. The U.S. FDA issued a positive establishment inspection report (EIR) with voluntary action indicated (VAI) status for its formulations manufacturing facility in Monroe, North Carolina.

In the week gone by, notable gainers amongst Nifty 50 were:

HINDALCO
TECH MAHINDRA
SHRIRAM FINANCE
BAJAJ FINANCE
SUN PHARMA

And the losers were:

ADANI ENT (-5.87%)
BHARTI AIRTEL (-2.83%)
SBI LIFE (-2.79%)
POWERGRID (-2.76%)
TRENT (-2.49%)

WHAT’S NEXT FOR NIFTY?

Well, the good news on sentiment front is that India VIX logged its steepest weekly drop in six months, falling from 13.64 (Nov 21) to ~11.62.

Notably, this pullback comes even as Nifty hits fresh record highs — signalling reduced volatility expectations and growing trader confidence.

New records highs for benchmark Nifty shall be the new normal on reports that India’s Q2 FY26 GDP surged 8.2%, powered by strong consumption and sectoral momentum.

Real GDP rose to ₹48.63 trillion, up from ₹44.94 trillion in the same quarter last year.

Also, on backdrop are positive catalysts like:

1) Dual Rate-Cut Hopes: Investors now anticipate policy easing from both the U.S. Fed and the RBI as early as next month.

2) Trade Deal Optimism: Rising hopes of progress on a potential U.S.–India trade agreement.

3) Macro Strength: India’s cooling inflation paired with a resilient growth outlook continue to paint a favourable backdrop.

4) IMF Upgrade: The IMF’s move to reclassify India’s rupee regime to “crawl-like” signals reduced FX intervention and a more stable, market-driven currency framework—boosting global investor confidence.

Bottom-line: Nifty bulls are likely to be everywhere at Dalal Street — so keep your list of bullish stocks ready before Santa arrives with momentum gifts.

Long Story Short: Keep Your Nifty all-time high cap ready! Yipee!!

Disclaimer/ Disclosure: The investments & trading ideas recommended in the market analysis, research reports, etc. may not be suitable for all investors. This article or data points does not construe investment advice as stock market investments are subject to market risks so please refer to your financial consultant advice before Investing or trading. All information is a point of view, and is for educational, Learning and informational use only. The author or the group admin accepts no liability for any interpretation of articles or comments on this platform being used for actual investments. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives, goals and financial position only after consulting with registered market intermediaries.